Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Lausanne-Sport vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dd1ebb930f136305754145e8a13331dae49ab2443f88944b65a06cc2847c9ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,120$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.4 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,015$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 74c | 700$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 123 | 36.6%45 W · 78 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 451$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.93 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 73c | 439.9$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.77 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 26c | 436$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.6 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561f…a932backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.73 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 73c | 350.8$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 302.4$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.41 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 25c | 233.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 197 | 36%71 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6d…4e19backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed No | 74c | 152$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 151.85$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 73c | 151.56$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…828bbacked Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 26c | 115$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Yes | 26c | 111$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked No | 74c | 106$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 27c | 103.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03b9…7e74backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 73c | 73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…572fbacked No | 73c | 71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 74c | 55.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 37 | 81.1%30 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Yes | 26c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 25c | 50.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 73c | 50.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Yes | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…cbf7backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…80cdbacked Yes | 26c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Yes | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -55%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed No | 74c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e2c2backed No | 72c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 73c | 34.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 45 | 80%36 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed No | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…0b39backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…23c6backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…d929backed No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f25…1e6ebacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc088…0809backed No | 75c | 14.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Lausanne-Sport vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw?this page
- Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-12-18?No won
- Will FC Lausanne-Sport win on 2025-12-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.