Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1df9d4f8f41e4dde9be663e8d95aa0eb91e3651f07ef1f63346eed368ca4228c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 74c | 231.36$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 27c | 188.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 30c | 177.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 149.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 143$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 25c | 138.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 76c | 128.71$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 16c | 122$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 27c | 115.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 110.39$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 101.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 97.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 15c | 97.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 28c | 90.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 25c | 86.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 12c | 85.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 84.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 34c | 73.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 22c | 67.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 38c | 61.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 33c | 61.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 60.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 59.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 57.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 73c | 53.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 28c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1423…a8cabacked Yes | 38c | 50.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked Yes | 22c | 49.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 25c | 48.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 74c | 41.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…1108backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 79c | 29.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 73c | 28.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 72c | 26.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 76c | 26.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…b51cbacked No | 76c | 25.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 63c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…cab9backed No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 68c | 19.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 75c | 19.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ca…e577backed No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 71c | 18.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc90f…55e4backed No | 76c | 18.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 61c | 17.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c2…68eebacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 70c | 14.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.