Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42dbe13fdb34509e37645bf05c06447a00f487020dac6dabb7d45463813fe307
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 21c | 500.8$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.11 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 443.02$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 278.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 77c | 258.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 79c | 230.3$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 210.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 24c | 132.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 129.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 21c | 116.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 99.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e5…7087backed Yes | 20c | 98.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 78c | 95.9$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 21c | 95.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 18c | 93.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes | 22c | 87.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 21c | 86.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 85.81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 25c | 79.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 77c | 78.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 66.77$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 24c | 49.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 45.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 29.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked No | 78c | 28.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 80c | 23.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 23.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 74c | 19.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 17.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 74c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 80c | 14.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.