Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29a624301c41de82734f02a00a238b32bec3ef63aa12934eeee006b5f7d050b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 405.07$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.55 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 58c | 313.15$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.75 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 22c | 301.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 11c | 264.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 79c | 253.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 73c | 245.21$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.82 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 60c | 212.72$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 19c | 204.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 38c | 189.21$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.59 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 34c | 143$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 139.03$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 76c | 129.87$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 27c | 128.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 24c | 112.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 43c | 105.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 23c | 102$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 67c | 99.75$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 50c | 99.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 43c | 94.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 54c | 92.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1423…a8cabacked Yes | 44c | 92.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 25c | 90.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 61c | 87.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 85.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 66c | 80.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 79.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 73.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 73.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 77c | 63.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 60c | 61.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 19c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 45c | 59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 64c | 58.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 45c | 57.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 33c | 57.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 55.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf90…62b9backed Yes | 57c | 54.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 31c | 48.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 28c | 41.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 60c | 38.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked No | 51c | 37.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 76c | 35.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 57c | 34.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed No | 42c | 34.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 47c | 33.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 33.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe681…19f8backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 56c | 28.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 27.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 62c | 27.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38aa…53a6backed Yes | 58c | 25.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 77c | 25.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 21.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 59c | 18.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.