Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dfdd7c4ed6825e4ccc27d545d377d5fdb9048ad1492976d4464e5e439b6b645
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 9c | 515.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 48c | 378.76$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.76 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 281.04$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 30c | 184.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 31c | 143.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.46 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 75c | 138.15$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.87 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…1de3backed Yes | 25c | 137.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.01 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 126.18$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 22c | 116.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.82 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 23c | 115$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.55 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 114.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 60c | 111.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 100.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 93.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 30c | 90.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.01 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 12c | 86.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 60c | 77.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 69.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 60.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 27c | 59.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 31c | 55.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 73c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…6083backed No | 77c | 52.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 25c | 52.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 29c | 51.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 22c | 51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 67c | 44.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 39c | 42.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 59c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 76c | 36.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 41c | 30.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 28.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed No | 73c | 27.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…2b99backed No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 22.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 66c | 19.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…5732backed No | 77c | 19.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…8f82backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 75c | 15.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…2e9fbacked No | 76c | 15.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 77c | 14.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.