Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77fdcefb497a19cca8382d8e4e3939a2714fd33b8d349bb1a0251521bf17e732
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82df…0f66backed No | 79c | 721.99$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.2 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 72c | 557.7$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 63c | 465.07$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.4 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…63ccbacked Yes | 33c | 299.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 15c | 277.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 61c | 275.22$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.16 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed No | 30c | 250$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 71c | 235.9$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 30c | 196.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.68 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 35c | 190$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.5 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 44c | 184.66$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed No | 33c | 172.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.51 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 61c | 168.2$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.32 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed No | 57c | 166.26$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 158.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 146.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 45c | 137.25$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 126.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…1de3backed No | 64c | 107.68$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 101.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 36c | 91.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 30c | 89.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 79.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf839…4407backed No | 65c | 76.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 57c | 74.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f28…2cefbacked No | 49c | 74.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 63.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 59.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 54c | 55.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 54.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…67f4backed No | 71c | 53.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 38c | 52.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a71…f680backed Yes | 50c | 49.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…a35dbacked Yes | 62c | 49.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac2…058dbacked No | 33c | 46.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 43c | 45.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 45.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 43c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 59c | 43.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 43c | 43.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 64c | 41.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 34c | 37.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 45c | 36.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 35c | 34.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…943ebacked No | 45c | 34.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…2e64backed No | 44c | 32.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 37c | 32.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6739…a52ebacked Yes | 47c | 31.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 40c | 30.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 43c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2122…efcabacked No | 72c | 29.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 69c | 29.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 57c | 26.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 40c | 25.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 48c | 25.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb496…2657backed No | 72c | 24.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 61c | 23.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 64c | 21.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 21.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…5732backed No | 71c | 21.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…06b3backed No | 73c | 20.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 64c | 20.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.