MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dfe1dea02025520023841786c59571f3d3f8acae02b61f4f178139e1dabeaac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,114 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 1,428$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.38 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Baltimore Orioles | 19c | 1,098$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 230 | 36.1%83 W · 147 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 1,001$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.65 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 1,000$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.95 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 967.16$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.88 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 658.1$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.93 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 570.03$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.91 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 481.54$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.86 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 430$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.8 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Baltimore Orioles | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 852 | 35.8%305 W · 547 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 331.37$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.37 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 311.82$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.17 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Baltimore Orioles | 6c | 299.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 291.78$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 280$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.49 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 275$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.25 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 251.94$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.07 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…0f95backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 233$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.84 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 209$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.38 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 19c | 175.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 158.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.05 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Baltimore Orioles | 22c | 151$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 14c | 128.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 55c | 121.27$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 99.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 96.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Baltimore Orioles | 19c | 87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7f…85c3backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 78.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…2837backed Baltimore Orioles | 32c | 77.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb89…ec39backed Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 70.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 370 | 48.9%181 W · 189 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 52.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 50.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 49.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 47.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d75…12a6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 38.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 38.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 28.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…bc23backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 23.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 21.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…de96backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.