Tennis · resolved market
Mexican Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Elias Ymer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e086a2e2815305779840d69aba695e3af5c2c8be08ddc889c899221a3f41a6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ymerof McDonald, Ymer
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked McDonald | 62c | 5,205$3,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,234.97 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Ymer | 59c | 4,322$2,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,751.72 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Ymer | 61c | 3,158$1,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.9 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed McDonald | 27c | 3,005$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.86 | 1,118 | 42.8%479 W · 639 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked McDonald | 23c | 2,921$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.94 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked McDonald | 35c | 2,578$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.3 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…3fb7backed Ymer | 25c | 2,410$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,807.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked McDonald | 35c | 2,055$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.43 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x046c…2a9cbacked Ymer | 37c | 1,770$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.03 | 352 | 47.2%166 W · 186 L | -23.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Ymer | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed McDonald | 24c | 784.59$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.19 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade0…e568backed Ymer | 70c | 714.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.33 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked McDonald | 59c | 685.98$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.03 | 632 | 47.6%301 W · 331 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed McDonald | 33c | 679.25$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.34 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed McDonald | 31c | 634$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.53 | 692 | 49.6%343 W · 349 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed McDonald | 45c | 599.22$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.05 | 1,106 | 50.3%556 W · 550 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…90fbbacked McDonald | 59c | 576.85$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce4…62fcbacked Ymer | 35c | 500$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 117 | 45.3%53 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…722bbacked Ymer | 57c | 464.22$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.22 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked McDonald | 50c | 399.99$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.57 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed McDonald | 67c | 378.25$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.33 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed McDonald | 74c | 328.3$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.12 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Ymer | 51c | 324.17$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.86 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Ymer | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Ymer | 54c | 284.44$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.81 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked McDonald | 74c | 271.94$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 524 | 60.9%319 W · 205 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Ymer | 28c | 254$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.88 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15fe…c871backed McDonald | 33c | 240$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.98 | 161 | 33.5%54 W · 107 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da8…a481backed McDonald | 56c | 238.77$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.7 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Ymer | 61c | 229.42$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.38 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed McDonald | 7c | 205.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 442 | 29.6%131 W · 311 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Ymer | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed McDonald | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 139 | 23.7%33 W · 106 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed McDonald | 22c | 190.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6aaa…ddfdbacked Ymer | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 273 | 46.5%127 W · 146 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked McDonald | 41c | 185$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa519…2cc1backed McDonald | 20c | 180.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Ymer | 55c | 173.28$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.38 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Ymer | 29c | 167.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.04 | 542 | 49.3%267 W · 275 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Ymer | 34c | 165.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.81 | 373 | 39.1%146 W · 227 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked McDonald | 65c | 162.94$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.79 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef27…bd29backed McDonald | 40c | 161.66$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed McDonald | 65c | 154.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 306 | 45.1%138 W · 168 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed McDonald | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 262 | 27.9%73 W · 189 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4258…b33fbacked Ymer | 33c | 147.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.36 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked McDonald | 39c | 145.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 656 | 47.6%312 W · 344 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aff…5f17backed McDonald | 69c | 144$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed McDonald | 14c | 138.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…96f0backed Ymer | 28c | 125.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.15 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked McDonald | 70c | 124$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d5…2149backed McDonald | 42c | 119.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 185 | 40%74 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Ymer | 49c | 100.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked McDonald | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 779 | 67.8%528 W · 251 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Ymer | 26c | 99.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.64 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…fef0backed McDonald | 29c | 95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 226 | 34.5%78 W · 148 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed McDonald | 32c | 92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Ymer | 26c | 89.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 372 | 38.2%142 W · 230 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked McDonald | 44c | 59.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed McDonald | 52c | 58.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 179 | 59.8%107 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Ymer | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Ymer | 26c | 53.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ymer | 77c | 52.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Ymer | 27c | 48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 381 | 33.9%129 W · 252 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…c586backed McDonald | 30c | 43.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Ymer | 60c | 40.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…af90backed Ymer | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…11ffbacked Ymer | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…36a3backed McDonald | 65c | 38.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 547 | 44.4%243 W · 304 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…aa01backed McDonald | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 333 | 64.9%216 W · 117 L | -19.4wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed McDonald | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | +12.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bec…37d3backed McDonald | 62c | 25.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 142 | 72.5%103 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked McDonald | 71c | 23.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked McDonald | 74c | 20.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed McDonald | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 593 | 66.8%396 W · 197 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed McDonald | 69c | 18.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.