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MLB · resolved market

Guardians vs. Twins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Twinsof Guardians, Twins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$932,695
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$924,544

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $932,695 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 356 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Twins45c664,046$298,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365,304.0838043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Guardians55c290,000$159,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159,50013246.2%61 W · 71 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Guardians56c80,000$44,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,8002955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Guardians55c57,000$31,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,35055053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Guardians55c55,000$30,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,25044456.5%251 W · 193 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Twins44c51,720$22,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,968.551,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Guardians56c50,000$28,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,999.9926949.4%133 W · 136 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Guardians55c40,000$22,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,0001,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Guardians44c23,921$10,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,453.6935952.4%188 W · 171 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Guardians55c22,600$12,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,43011759%69 W · 48 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Twins75c22,376$16,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,5941,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Guardians55c20,000$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,0007363%46 W · 27 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Guardians57c15,654$8,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,886.911,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Guardians55c12,666$6,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,966.330255.6%168 W · 134 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Twins71c10,194$7,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,920.522,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Guardians55c7,800$4,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2901,15949.3%571 W · 588 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Twins69c7,171$4,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,255.3578445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb63d…9dd6backed Twins44c5,016$2,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,808.962665.4%17 W · 9 L+4.8wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+46.8%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Guardians55c5,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,75056451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bc…e520backed Guardians56c3,908$2,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,188.4827953.4%149 W · 130 L+16.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Guardians56c3,371$1,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,88824154.4%131 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Twins45c3,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.9834245%154 W · 188 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed Twins49c2,864$1,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,460.1421847.7%104 W · 114 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Twins44c2,273$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.7128042.1%118 W · 162 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fce…28f8backed Guardians58c2,138$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.449757.7%56 W · 41 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Guardians56c2,100$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.4530151.5%155 W · 146 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Twins78c2,078$1,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.1620747.8%99 W · 108 L-11.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7784…5b6dbacked Guardians56c1,786$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.995752.6%30 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Twins41c1,341$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.5433845.9%155 W · 183 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Twins37c1,225$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.396133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddfc…3231backed Guardians55c1,095$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.382846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Guardians55c1,093$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.071,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa468…816ebacked Guardians55c1,061$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5809349.5%46 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf208…314ebacked Guardians55c1,048$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.52347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Guardians55c1,038$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.642,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Guardians56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56022142.1%93 W · 128 L-16.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Twins43c999.99$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.9983248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Guardians49c967.04$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.79,89146.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L+40.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Twins46c893.24$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.473149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Twins47c843.77$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.7767248.5%326 W · 346 L+2.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Twins47c799.98$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.993,32046.2%1,535 W · 1,785 L+22.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Guardians55c777$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.3511854.2%64 W · 54 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+40.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Twins42c732.83$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.046,13255.4%3,395 W · 2,737 L+346.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb091…2017backed Guardians53c726.6$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.131354.6%171 W · 142 L-12.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Twins44c625$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35050843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Twins45c609.28$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.160249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Guardians55c600$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33016934.9%59 W · 110 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Twins45c573.39$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.3651347%241 W · 272 L+32.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Twins73c565.39$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.351,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed1f…afd7backed Guardians57c526.32$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003562.9%22 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3ad…9d38backed Guardians57c526.32$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30017045.3%77 W · 93 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Guardians57c526$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.821,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Twins43c520.32$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.5843949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ea1…56f2backed Twins44c510$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.612436.3%45 W · 79 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe797…2b36backed Guardians56c500$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.54753.2%25 W · 22 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Twins46c499.99$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.991,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Twins46c440$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.61,45249.9%725 W · 727 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Twins80c417.84$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.5780955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Twins45c417.71$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.7463352.8%334 W · 299 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba14…b792backed Twins44c404$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.2444643.3%193 W · 253 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6692…1125backed Guardians56c400$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22413242.4%56 W · 76 L-14.0wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-22%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9aa7…eda6backed Guardians55c400$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2205151%26 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Guardians57c400$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2287643.4%33 W · 43 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba56…b1e3backed Twins45c388.89$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.895742.1%24 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf575…e0ebbacked Guardians34c373.13$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.74242.9%18 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Twins44c368.18$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.1857744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Guardians56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20056351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Guardians59c340.69$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.621,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d5f…84bfbacked Twins45c338.4$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.121,05850.4%533 W · 525 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ed…f1bdbacked Guardians56c310$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.61275%9 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Guardians54c300$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16266751.9%346 W · 321 L+30.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbf6…513abacked Guardians52c294$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.889450%47 W · 47 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec75…2e8fbacked Twins79c292.22$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.377749.4%38 W · 39 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Twins45c276$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.812,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1126…4e82backed Twins70c271.62$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.360052.2%313 W · 287 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Twins33c262.72$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.370841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Twins44c245.41$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.431,09346.4%507 W · 586 L+1.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2276…307bbacked Guardians56c230.36$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1293860.5%23 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Guardians30c221$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.951,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Twins44c215.98$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.951,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1037…413fbacked Twins79c207.77$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6314055.7%78 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcd1…f50fbacked Twins45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1104156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe325…9408backed Twins45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1104452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9533…6d5fbacked Guardians55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105263.5%33 W · 19 L+7.9wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+32.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x38f7…7f8dbacked Guardians55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105455.6%30 W · 24 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7493…5836backed Twins45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1104351.2%22 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c69…8f62backed Twins45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1104454.5%24 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd63…6179backed Twins45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1104052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe2f…8cf4backed Twins45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1104360.5%26 W · 17 L+5.4wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+26.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb033…fb4fbacked Twins45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1105448.1%26 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2d…d780backed Twins45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1104156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2289…6ceebacked Twins45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1104452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb58…ed5abacked Twins45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1104259.5%25 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6994…c144backed Guardians55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103537.1%13 W · 22 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x18dd…51a8backed Twins45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1104156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xacf7…0255backed Twins45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1104459.1%26 W · 18 L+4.9wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+23.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbfe5…3c80backed Twins45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1105343.4%23 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e2f…69d9backed Twins45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1104353.5%23 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64b7…c03ebacked Twins45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1104252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe72…10a7backed Twins45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1104050%20 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.