Bundesliga · resolved market
RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e19715713e811308fb26e070330564a22caf3fed870c2a77fbbded2964a4fc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,657 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 16c | 2,163$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.43 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 1,909$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.53 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Over | 28c | 1,329$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.11 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…a81bbacked Under | 1c | 1,307$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 27c | 1,231$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.56 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 72c | 792$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.24 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf277…9a5fbacked Under | 73c | 684.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 72c | 632.71$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.82 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…9ab9backed Under | 71c | 559.47$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 27c | 469.29$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.74 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 80c | 430.32$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.06 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 28c | 404.05$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.96 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +7.6wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…2c43backed Under | 7c | 302.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 28c | 249.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.99 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 29c | 249.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.49 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 51c | 242.37$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.61 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 13c | 241.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 29c | 217.8$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.64 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…8745backed Over | 53c | 214.13$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 28c | 204.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.95 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…30a0backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Under | 6c | 191.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9184…6048backed Over | 30c | 161.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.82 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 28c | 158$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.76 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Over | 30c | 143$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 27c | 108.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 107.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 73c | 82.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 47c | 80.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 80c | 73.68$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Over | 26c | 73.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Under | 28c | 72.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Under | 73c | 71.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…044bbacked Under | 48c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 26c | 57.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 29c | 54.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 76c | 52.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x261c…d49dbacked Under | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7718…4c1bbacked Over | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Over | 30c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Under | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…4698backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1feb…5d9abacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 70c | 25.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae9a…7ceabacked Under | 74c | 24.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…c102backed Over | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x695f…1b67backed Under | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 74c | 21.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 72c | 20.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Under | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 71c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f2…c640backed Under | 71c | 16.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5this page
- RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.