Bundesliga · resolved market
RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1caa56e5603d254a79378c157d6cc00da42fc448a2570037d44c42a378a1efe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,236 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 1,639$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.49 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x158d…9c64backed Over | 71c | 1,014$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 30c | 999.99$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.31 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 34c | 925.16$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.71 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 69c | 724.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.64 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…73fbbacked Over | 69c | 565.22$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.22 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 70c | 557.14$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.14 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 67c | 499.99$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Over | 63c | 412.7$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.7 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 33c | 389.45$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.52 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4680…e592backed Over | 70c | 328.8$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.64 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 30c | 320.79$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…20e3backed Under | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 69c | 280.2$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.35 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9e55…d06cbacked Over | 72c | 278.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 30c | 276.92$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.48 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 30c | 249.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Under | 30c | 242$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.74 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Over | 70c | 226.24$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Over | 71c | 220$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 29c | 213.68$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 29c | 211.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 32c | 200.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27d3…0764backed Over | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…30a0backed Over | 70c | 199.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…41f2backed Over | 68c | 182.88$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 28c | 180$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…8a64backed Under | 31c | 166.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 30c | 146.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 31c | 145.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Under | 29c | 145.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4a…0561backed Over | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…c65dbacked Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa10b…9885backed Under | 30c | 123.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…21f7backed Over | 70c | 119.84$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 73c | 116.19$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 75c | 99.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Over | 69c | 99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 32c | 86.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…d370backed Under | 32c | 75.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…1a94backed Over | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…cea5backed Over | 75c | 66.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 29c | 64.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 65c | 61.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x701a…2cfbbacked Over | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 26c | 54.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Under | 32c | 53.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 30c | 53.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 70c | 51.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd6…24c5backed Under | 32c | 48.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 75c | 40.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4801…295fbacked Over | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8261…a3f1backed Over | 69c | 35.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…fddbbacked Over | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 68cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 75c | 34.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…eb5cbacked Over | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x604e…f1cdbacked Over | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a0…b873backed Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 65c | 28.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e9…736dbacked Over | 71c | 28.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Over | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa989…3fefbacked Over | 70c | 25.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 71c | 22.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 27 | 85.2%23 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fb…e34ebacked Over | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 65c | 20.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 66c | 19.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Over | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5this page
- RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.