Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf17445e814282d29189fdd66e8b8540b3e13dfb71fb7db08b252c1add19a460e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RB Leipzigof RB Leipzig, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,850 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 13c | 695.03$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.35 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a32…0188backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 70c | 499.98$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.98 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 8c | 414.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 27c | 413.13$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.89 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked RB Leipzig | 30c | 397.75$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.75 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked RB Leipzig | 29c | 393.19$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.16 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed RB Leipzig | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed RB Leipzig | 80c | 278.19$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 70c | 176$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0843…97f5backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 71c | 173.24$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked RB Leipzig | 30c | 166.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 71c | 154.93$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 7c | 147.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…763dbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 72c | 99.92$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 71c | 99.34$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.53 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed RB Leipzig | 30c | 96.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.53 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 70c | 75.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked RB Leipzig | 28c | 73.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.94 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…ff08backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 69c | 67.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed RB Leipzig | 29c | 62.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa10b…9885backed RB Leipzig | 31c | 56.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ae…4440backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…800bbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 71c | 51.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…5314backed RB Leipzig | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed RB Leipzig | 29c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…21b8backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 73c | 17.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd2…8759backed RB Leipzig | 64c | 16.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)this page
- RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.