Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e1b8c2f3459ac4af239ac8bec9a5882777126b44b08561c5b8e7b45295b07f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 577.05$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 566.47$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.43 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 377.01$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 13c | 201.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 167.2$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 31c | 155.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b3…b220backed Yes | 38c | 144.59$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 37c | 115.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 101.65$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 79c | 94.8$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 88.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 80.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 76.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 38c | 68.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…d76abacked Yes | 37c | 66.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 71c | 61.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 19c | 60.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 37c | 60.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 39c | 53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 38c | 52.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 51.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed No | 61c | 49.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 49.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 38c | 46.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 45.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 40c | 40.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 61c | 34.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 35c | 34.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 63c | 32.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…c32abacked Yes | 39c | 31.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 39c | 26.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 65c | 22.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 60c | 21.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 20.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 68c | 19.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 61c | 19.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 65c | 15.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.