Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e1c22cc05b31802dd0ac813b95a880b093b8ebae61ea6851a0fcccd2425c34f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 15c | 493.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 13c | 374.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 283.11$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.68 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 264.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 21c | 199.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.76 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 24c | 191.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.78 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 57c | 166.21$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 145.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 141.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 131$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 119.37$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.85 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 62c | 115.24$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 36c | 112.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d9…0dacbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 36c | 99.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 80c | 97.84$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 59c | 93.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 26c | 89.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 35c | 83.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 24c | 74.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 69.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 56.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…923abacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 48.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 41c | 48.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 31c | 46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 28c | 41.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1674backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 76c | 38.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked No | 79c | 38.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 79c | 37.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 49c | 37.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 36.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 75c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 31.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 42c | 25.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 25.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 24.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 72c | 20.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 75c | 20.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 74c | 18.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e8…b7f0backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…afc3backed Yes | 80c | 13.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.