Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5098ec0eaf955815298e9e1acc41a4deca2157ed1bd8a2a806701c4466b9252d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 20,378$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.47 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 44c | 442.65$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 52c | 367.03$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.31 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23db…cf1cbacked Yes | 4c | 326.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 33c | 255.81$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.6 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 216.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 207.52$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 161.81$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 45c | 151.54$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.64 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…4e32backed Yes | 76c | 132.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 77c | 129.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 120.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 118.02$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 117.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 113.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 102.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 50c | 98.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 98.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 44c | 76.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 73.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 72.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 51c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 45c | 62.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 28c | 59.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 34c | 57.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 66c | 55.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 25c | 55.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 53c | 55.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 54.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 52.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 67c | 47.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5329…3e3dbacked No | 78c | 44.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 60c | 43.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 43c | 34.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 57c | 32.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe8…9f16backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 59c | 31.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 67c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 30.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…c91dbacked Yes | 69c | 28.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 26.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 67c | 26.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 70c | 23.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 70c | 21.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 57c | 18.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c3…4d56backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.