Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e3ff1e7788eaa9f0766b7d49b33779bdae894eeda6e7f78e8b346daffaeafac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 2,944$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,133.42 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ce…8f73backed Under | 5c | 2,600$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,480.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +446.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 71c | 525.14$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.24 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 70c | 500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1e…5d9bbacked Over | 80c | 500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 20c | 331.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.5 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…04b5backed Over | 80c | 297.49$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 73c | 244.13$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc876…5b66backed Under | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 22c | 196.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.03 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 20c | 138.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.94 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 65c | 120.78$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 41c | 112.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 67c | 110$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c19…859cbacked Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 50c | 78.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…edb9backed Over | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -7.6wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…f4e6backed Over | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 65 | 83.1%54 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Under | 23c | 48.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 64c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 78c | 34.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb4…68c3backed Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 73c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 71c | 23.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 75c | 22.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 79c | 17.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Over | 72c | 15.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5this page
- SC Freiburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SC Freiburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.