TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

SC Freiburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$380,233
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$380,616

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $380,233 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Under51c303,518$154,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148,768.441947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Over49c200,000$98,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98,0001566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+33.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Over49c50,000$24,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,5004042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over49c40,080$19,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,639.21,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb904…c255backed Over49c39,391$19,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,301.831241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Under51c21,149$10,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,363.014854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over49c7,915$3,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,878.2416652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Under50c7,880$3,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,940.216251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23fb…fe50backed Under51c6,863$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,362.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Over52c6,012$3,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,126.249951.5%51 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c8…97debacked Under51c5,882$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,882.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33a7…960dbacked Over35c5,715$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.2511630.2%35 W · 81 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under60c4,363$2,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,745.333,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd54…3a0cbacked Under51c3,922$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.57250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under51c3,451$1,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,690.8753645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over49c2,400$1,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.5735856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over50c2,009$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.861,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Under51c1,549$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.023953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6d1…62eabacked Under45c1,100$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.945145.1%23 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f12…70d4backed Over46c1,087$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002650%13 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bdf…56f5backed Over50c613.68$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.843941%16 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Under50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20016850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Over50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20031145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4157…04f9backed Over50c370$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1857857.7%45 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xacb5…d643backed Over50c336$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1685848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5032…d300backed Under40c327.25$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.35966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+66.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under46c316.19$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.7433244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Under50c281.06$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.539048.9%44 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over44c265.8$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.426134.4%21 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over54c222.22$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12037344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f51…41edbacked Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006659.1%39 W · 27 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Over53c150$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7510855.6%60 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Over50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757847.4%37 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a62…fa34backed Over67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+54.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ba…2a30backed Over56c142.86$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8012861.7%79 W · 49 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over49c135$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1522854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a9b…f4edbacked Over55c132.72$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa354…b85fbacked Over54c126.74$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.445853.4%31 W · 27 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+21.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Over49c115$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3514355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0f4…5107backed Under45c112.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.611471.4%10 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick71cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Over55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555162.7%32 W · 19 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4523…0be0backed Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502850%14 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x239b…f8bfbacked Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507452.7%39 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2810…a1a8backed Over52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527753.2%41 W · 36 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeedf…1483backed Over54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab57…8882backed Under48c99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over50c94$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4712069.2%83 W · 37 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd235…6eebbacked Over43c93.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011943.7%52 W · 67 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under44c92.93$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0448658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Over49c90$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.112356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under51c74.55$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.161,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4786…ff95backed Under56c71.94$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.941573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.22per pick52cpaid+33.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc307…bf36backed Over50c71.16$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.58450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30a5…d47bbacked Over39c69.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.09850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.412458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.412657.9%73 W · 53 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b10…edb9backed Over50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302020%4 W · 16 L-7.6wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-69.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Over49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.412358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Over51c58.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.821051.4%108 W · 102 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over52c57.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.871,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over56c53.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3034655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Over49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.512757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x46af…1f6abacked Over49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.58952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Over51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid+19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7b5…798cbacked Over49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.58155.6%45 W · 36 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x98df…41b7backed Over45c43.22$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Over49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2055058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b32…d6a8backed Over49c40.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020957.4%120 W · 89 L-0.7wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc647…2f03backed Over55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202560%15 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over57c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207541.3%31 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14c3…0262backed Over44c32.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.54524.4%11 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fa1…bf73backed Over49c30.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157758.4%45 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d42…4f02backed Over66c30.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1366…bf01backed Over51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ef0…6b23backed Under51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over44c29.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.238151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Under45c25.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.839838.8%38 W · 60 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Over49c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2511360.2%68 W · 45 L+10.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Over49c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2511063.6%70 W · 40 L+13.6wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+26.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed Over50c24.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.455547.3%26 W · 29 L-5.9wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-22.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Over49c24.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8615453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Over51c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2518746%86 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Over47c21.91$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.233836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb295…d1e7backed Under50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99df…b59abacked Over50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa66f…f5a3backed Over51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.214942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.