Asian League · resolved market
Will Henan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e4f9db75dcc1575732446f922641c72e6713b7f3f0ea5d2d6d454ffce1c00bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 74c | 2,231$1,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.35 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 1,741$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.27 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 36c | 1,594$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.81 | 243 | 23%56 W · 187 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 25c | 1,234$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.72 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa03f…fa16backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 80c | 583.54$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.24 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 25c | 400.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 8c | 334.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x058d…bbabbacked Yes | 13c | 313.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 69c | 219.48$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1783backed Yes | 35c | 174.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.14 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 9c | 149.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 585 | 42.7%250 W · 335 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 10c | 125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 9c | 117$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 27c | 102.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…1a00backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7296…69f5backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 68.71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…9db1backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1d…5ae6backed Yes | 36c | 56.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed No | 74c | 49.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed No | 74c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…2b89backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked No | 79c | 37.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 75c | 28.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 72c | 25.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f4…b240backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 76c | 23.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 708 | 42.5%301 W · 407 L | -26.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 76c | 20.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 74c | 15.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Henan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-15?Yes won
- Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.