World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e6b3b8427160da2a9cc0a1cd88ec7b5952b07836c3dcfdf0c2dcd5780825fd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 1,179$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.12 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 428.41$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.33 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 60c | 396.72$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.04 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 293.68$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.09 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 45c | 292$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.6 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 45c | 214$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.7 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 211.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.95 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…51d2backed Yes | 45c | 208.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 198.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 196.01$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.42 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 60c | 194$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 44c | 190.32$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.79 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 147.88$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 136.7$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 125$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 115.78$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 90$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 60c | 76.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 38c | 74.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 48c | 74.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 61c | 62.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 54.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 57c | 52.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 61c | 51.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 42c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 55cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 51c | 49.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc78a…ba6dbacked Yes | 43c | 46.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 45.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 46c | 43.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed Yes | 45c | 41.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 35.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 34.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 68c | 29.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 42c | 27.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 67c | 25.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d5…c693backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0e…ab04backed No | 55c | 18.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 62c | 18.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 62c | 18.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.