Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e8472bc3409e55d4547ca194afe06aec93ff81528ccd56791a9fba914b7e8e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 337.36$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 214.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 56c | 197.68$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 167.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 26c | 156.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.53 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 78c | 113.14$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 62c | 111.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 110$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 18c | 100.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89a8…2b17backed No | 79c | 90$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 26c | 90$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.37 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 35c | 89.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 60c | 86.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 22c | 81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x006e…59dbbacked Yes | 20c | 74.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 74.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 40c | 74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 42c | 73.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 67.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 69c | 59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 34c | 54.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6b…33d4backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 75c | 49.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 52c | 49.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 39c | 47.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 61c | 44.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 33c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 32c | 41.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 41.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 64c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 28.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 78c | 25.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 65c | 24.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 62c | 22.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 72c | 17.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 66c | 15.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.