NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e95befc682e26f0cabb66c8f014df1061372cda47aa27923d994876a24cce11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Over | 45c | 2,670$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.5 | 132 | 39.4%52 W · 80 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…71eebacked Over | 45c | 2,040$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 1,723$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.06 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 55c | 1,118$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.75 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 55c | 1,116$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.85 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 21c | 234.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 58c | 221$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…ff88backed Over | 8c | 159$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 44c | 137.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Over | 42c | 86.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 45c | 75.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 44c | 68.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 41c | 59.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 47c | 53.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Under | 53c | 49.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 23c | 47.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Under | 55c | 41.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 167 | 49.1%82 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f9…4375backed Under | 56c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 227.5this page
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Raptors vs. Trail BlazersRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 224.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.