NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x233b07fd7e826aee6af664f2b13545bf8a30fbfad37965f67efe9f750211f321
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Raptors, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $455,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $458,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $455,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Raptors | 48c | 425,882$205,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220,539.15 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 300,000$156,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156,000 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 90,734$46,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,274.36 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 8,590$4,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,466.74 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 8,321$4,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,297.09 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 8,000$4,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,160 | 320 | 51.9%166 W · 154 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 7,777$4,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,044.04 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 4,098$2,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,146.68 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors | 47c | 2,902$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,541.2 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Trail Blazers | 51c | 2,255$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.24 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors | 46c | 2,216$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.81 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Raptors | 47c | 1,668$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.83 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 1,377$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.81 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Raptors | 47c | 1,326$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.53 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Raptors | 48c | 1,113$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.09 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4466…9ad1backed Raptors | 44c | 1,010$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.74 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +5.3wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…6509backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 769.23$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 280 | 46.8%131 W · 149 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…9b3cbacked Raptors | 46c | 689.67$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.42 | 203 | 55.2%112 W · 91 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 599.96$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.98 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 542$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.74 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 538.47$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.08 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 480$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.19 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked Raptors | 49c | 410$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.1 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 398 | 42.5%169 W · 229 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 310.24$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.43 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Trail Blazers | 30c | 282.62$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.23 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 265.28$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.51 | 167 | 49.1%82 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 263$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.02 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 259.98$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.19 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Trail Blazers | 7c | 242.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Raptors | 42c | 241.43$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.2 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…1f1ebacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 193.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a44…6db6backed Trail Blazers | 17c | 154.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Raptors | 45c | 133.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.41 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 128.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eca…6882backed Raptors | 58c | 116.29$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 159 | 36.5%58 W · 101 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Raptors | 70c | 110.32$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 110.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1c…c085backed Trail Blazers | 59c | 72.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c42…bfaebacked Raptors | 71c | 71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 108 | 42.6%46 W · 62 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…e660backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Raptors | 64c | 67.75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…6bf3backed Raptors | 54c | 64.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Raptors | 48c | 60.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…b665backed Trail Blazers | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 141 | 56.7%80 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3a…e1f0backed Raptors | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x376a…4384backed Trail Blazers | 73c | 55.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed Trail Blazers | 41c | 55.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 48.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…1808backed Raptors | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e6…8b14backed Trail Blazers | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…1f46backed Trail Blazers | 57c | 34.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bc…a233backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 33.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Raptors | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 30.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 243 | 32.9%80 W · 163 L | -22.7wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd50…c3bcbacked Raptors | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4289…6eb8backed Raptors | 61c | 29.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 140 | 50.7%71 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167c…a88bbacked Raptors | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 20.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)this page
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Raptors vs. Trail BlazersRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 224.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.