TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Raptors (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Raptors, Trail Blazers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$247,450
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$247,425

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $247,450 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe20a…e469backed Raptors52c81,319$42,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,032.992,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Raptors52c50,034$26,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,016.4687451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Trail Blazers48c29,086$13,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,986.022,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Trail Blazers48c20,761$9,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,911.645,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Trail Blazers48c18,581$8,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,919.0951350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Trail Blazers48c18,042$8,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,660.2952460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Trail Blazers48c16,667$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,00033447.9%160 W · 174 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Trail Blazers48c11,543$5,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,573.524,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Raptors51c11,000$5,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,339.991,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Trail Blazers48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Raptors53c9,416$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,415.7376746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Raptors51c7,440$3,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,645.3829055.5%161 W · 129 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Trail Blazers49c6,541$3,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,198.482,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers48c6,529$3,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,127.239,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Trail Blazers48c5,617$2,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,69624847.6%118 W · 130 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77fe…551dbacked Trail Blazers48c5,567$2,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,67224450%122 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers49c5,391$2,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,615.836,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Raptors52c5,335$2,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,545.012,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Trail Blazers53c5,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,649.991,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Raptors48c4,723$2,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,455.962,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9080…d00abacked Raptors47c4,464$2,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,365.92837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Trail Blazers49c4,349$2,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,127.023,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Trail Blazers48c3,942$1,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,892.1692753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Trail Blazers48c3,807$1,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,827.121,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x936f…d171backed Trail Blazers47c3,500$1,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,66011753%62 W · 55 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Trail Blazers55c3,026$1,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,664.221,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Raptors51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.9980737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Raptors52c2,885$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,384.6256453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Raptors48c2,607$1,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,355.641,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Raptors47c2,504$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,327.8336359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Raptors52c2,397$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.665750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e82…7670backed Trail Blazers48c2,363$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,13414346.2%66 W · 77 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Trail Blazers52c2,303$1,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.242,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Trail Blazers51c1,957$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bca…59f2backed Raptors51c1,840$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ce7…93b9backed Trail Blazers49c1,835$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Raptors56c1,760$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.3891050.9%463 W · 447 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Trail Blazers48c1,507$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.4135747.1%168 W · 189 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Trail Blazers49c1,461$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.1259347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Trail Blazers52c1,416$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.172,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Trail Blazers48c1,400$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6722,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Trail Blazers46c1,397$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.464,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Trail Blazers52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52075347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Raptors53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47032957.4%189 W · 140 L+18.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Raptors50c976.29$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.872,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Raptors52c950$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.731,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Trail Blazers53c940$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.21,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Trail Blazers49c900$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4444,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked Trail Blazers44c870.45$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38347354.8%259 W · 214 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6e1…b15fbacked Trail Blazers49c866$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd5…9c28backed Trail Blazers51c839.98$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.3910445.2%47 W · 57 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Trail Blazers48c838.77$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.6123850%119 W · 119 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1b2…19c5backed Raptors49c777$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Trail Blazers52c700$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36467252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x59e7…1633backed Raptors45c688.89$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.89650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Trail Blazers48c551.73$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.182,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Trail Blazers50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Trail Blazers47c472.74$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.6628537.9%108 W · 177 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Raptors47c425.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.5315543.2%67 W · 88 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28d5…7da6backed Raptors51c380$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers45c320.04$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.748,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d4b…a250backed Raptors50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15034447.4%163 W · 181 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Trail Blazers26c296.16$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.991,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Raptors52c288.46$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.4637930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8225…d165backed Trail Blazers51c288$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Raptors51c275.27$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.714,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf87b…180abacked Trail Blazers51c272.54$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13916539.4%65 W · 100 L-11.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Trail Blazers53c267.1$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.053,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3304…7660backed Raptors51c263$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde98…568ebacked Trail Blazers51c255$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a26…1b7dbacked Trail Blazers54c254.48$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.023751.4%19 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Trail Blazers48c250$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Trail Blazers45c234.5$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.532,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d78…03bcbacked Trail Blazers51c234$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f6…2e01backed Trail Blazers50c223.67$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.6216749.1%82 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcce8…1288backed Raptors51c223$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadc5…e2afbacked Trail Blazers48c206.37$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0611150.5%56 W · 55 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Raptors49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0836649.5%181 W · 185 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Raptors50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10015052.7%79 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed Trail Blazers39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7814751%75 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c49…ca9dbacked Raptors50c199$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.518240.7%74 W · 108 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed Trail Blazers51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001850%9 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18ca…6413backed Trail Blazers51c172.55$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883638.9%14 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-23.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Raptors48c169.19$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.9811849.2%58 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb405…c706backed Raptors48c167$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.8414949.7%74 W · 75 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Trail Blazers48c145.07$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6353043.8%232 W · 298 L-25.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Trail Blazers48c136.58$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.951,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Trail Blazers50c133.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5433554.6%183 W · 152 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2095…8521backed Raptors47c133.74$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.045244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Trail Blazers48c122.88$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.751,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Trail Blazers50c118.81$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.412,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Trail Blazers49c118.75$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.323,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd10…f782backed Raptors53c110.15$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.1811647.4%55 W · 61 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x741a…4dbebacked Raptors50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503138.7%12 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe872…fd21backed Raptors53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4714036.4%51 W · 89 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x843a…2687backed Trail Blazers51c97.06$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.55947.5%28 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Raptors52c85.58$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.083,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4865…904dbacked Trail Blazers56c80.04$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8224363.8%155 W · 88 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6271…4ac6backed Trail Blazers53c77$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.812661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+36%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Raptors51c77$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.731,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.