Ligue 1 · resolved market
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e9a73057e319012768d8bcbb18509ab3e95843fd3f39bf04b8a41aed3a89561
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 6,014$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.12 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Over | 80c | 3,536$2,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.86 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…7300backed Under | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 27c | 1,585$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.93 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 73c | 1,388$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.76 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 26c | 871.08$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.84 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed Over | 57c | 600$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 74c | 472.97$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.97 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…1846backed Over | 73c | 342.47$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 72c | 319.44$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 26c | 249.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 27c | 185.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 73c | 173.59$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 78c | 170$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 74c | 160$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 74c | 145.28$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a68…22dfbacked Under | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 14c | 133.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 68c | 117.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Under | 27c | 98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc4…3479backed Over | 74c | 96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 64c | 94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 21c | 72.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 77c | 72.39$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16de…2ebdbacked Over | 69c | 71.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…3691backed Over | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 42c | 66.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42d6…847cbacked Over | 74c | 66.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bb…1879backed Over | 73c | 53.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 63c | 50.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Under | 39c | 41.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Over | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…0d47backed Over | 55c | 33.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 36c | 32.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 73c | 32.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b91…27dcbacked Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd272…2856backed Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 73c | 16.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa6…e2febacked Over | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…7ae0backed Over | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Metz: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Metz: O/U 3.5Under won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Metz: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.