Ligue 1 · resolved market
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Metz: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5c43a5a552f1aef24817b8ec3c5418becc5c48af28e0119144d7192f3999369
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 2,977$2,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.45 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 34c | 1,579$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.23 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Over | 30c | 666.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 33c | 580.69$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.01 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 34c | 499.46$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.82 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Under | 62c | 498.39$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.39 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Over | 35c | 447.12$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.52 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 67c | 411$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.63 | 170 | 43.5%74 W · 96 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 33c | 228$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 80c | 142.35$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Under | 67c | 120$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 66c | 99.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 67c | 96.57$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…456fbacked Over | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…9cfbbacked Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Over | 23c | 83.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 42c | 80.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Under | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Under | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…df66backed Under | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…2e72backed Over | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 66c | 35.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…651cbacked Over | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb918…ef06backed Over | 37c | 34.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x583c…8e4cbacked Over | 33c | 32.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 38c | 30.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ff…e9b3backed Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…6545backed Under | 64c | 20.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 66c | 20.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 69c | 20.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d2…b34bbacked Under | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f36…d137backed Under | 65c | 17.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed Under | 62c | 16.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…0eedbacked Under | 69c | 15.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Under | 70c | 14.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Metz: O/U 4.5this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Metz: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Metz: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.