MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ec405cf7579dbeb3666e4e5fd2daaa2d6eaf95ddf1031556968687bb4dd2c4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 46c | 3,000$1,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,370 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 53c | 1,625$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.7 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 54c | 1,198$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.01 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Over | 55c | 1,114$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.38 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 56c | 1,111$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.84 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 55c | 1,097$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.72 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 45c | 822.2$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.99 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 56c | 803.57$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.57 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 45c | 698.55$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.35 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 44c | 617.92$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.47 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 44c | 529.57$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.01 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Under | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 447.35$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.26 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 45c | 241.15$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.28 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 73c | 238.42$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 27c | 208.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 70c | 198.75$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 56c | 197.3$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.3 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Over | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 33c | 162$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 27c | 154.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 43c | 149.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 44c | 148.13$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 64c | 118$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 47c | 83.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 78.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 61.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 42c | 53.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 54c | 49.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 71c | 48.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 47.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79e2…3ba7backed Under | 37c | 40.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 53c | 38.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 49c | 36.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Under | 45c | 33.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Over | 56c | 28.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 252 | 56.7%143 W · 109 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 48c | 27.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2022…37d9backed Under | 39c | 27.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 56c | 26.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…2deebacked Over | 58c | 25.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 54c | 21.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 320 | 54.1%173 W · 147 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.