MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x708f51fba075b4f6f2577af3f3550d2c904bca85531ccc3babe56378a94459e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 6,571$2,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,680.36 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 4,664$2,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,611.94 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 3,235$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.22 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 2,418$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355.78 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 2,149$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.46 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 1,820$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.2 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 1,295$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 1,053$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 869.98$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.19 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 600$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 563.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.64 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 399.14$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.52 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 300.12$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.26 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 198.75$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.85 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 182.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.28 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 155.53$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.72 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 116.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.54 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 77.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 77.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 69.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c77…8d9cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 67.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 60.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 59.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 53.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4725…ba00backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 50.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 45.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 43.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…9b6dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 29.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 28.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.