Premier League · resolved market
Newcastle United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ed700dd24ba13eedb0b56d606e197d76e138b740ee2d4c2cea16dc9851375ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 7c | 1,701$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.19 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 5c | 979.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 9c | 947.27$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ff…35ccbacked Under | 78c | 887.97$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.35 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 24c | 795.33$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.88 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…a295backed Under | 77c | 128.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…535dbacked Under | 79c | 124.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x850c…5f62backed Under | 79c | 96.24$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 19c | 72.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 78c | 71.27$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…2b89backed Under | 80c | 61.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…b3edbacked Under | 78c | 50.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 77c | 49.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 78c | 31.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b2…e004backed Under | 80c | 28.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 4.5this page
- Newcastle United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5)Newcastle United FC won
- Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-2.5)Newcastle United FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)AFC Bournemouth won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-2.5)AFC Bournemouth won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.