Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c087438369992ff2870df918b573d36644fc545f34b249b0f78c2d6f9196c1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AFC Bournemouthof Newcastle United FC, AFC Bournemouth
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed AFC Bournemouth | 78c | 3,734$2,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.75 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Newcastle United FC | 20c | 3,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 459 | 36.2%166 W · 293 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa95…6ac7backed Newcastle United FC | 24c | 1,985$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Newcastle United FC | 25c | 1,920$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked AFC Bournemouth | 75c | 1,436$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.94 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Newcastle United FC | 25c | 1,100$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 264 | 44.7%118 W · 146 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Newcastle United FC | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Newcastle United FC | 23c | 739.63$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.63 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa492…adbebacked Newcastle United FC | 23c | 622.04$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.07 | 91 | 31.9%29 W · 62 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed AFC Bournemouth | 75c | 461.02$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.97 | 395 | 55.9%221 W · 174 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Newcastle United FC | 24c | 299.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 557 | 51.5%287 W · 270 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked AFC Bournemouth | 75c | 292.11$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.43 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Newcastle United FC | 24c | 255.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 288 | 24.7%71 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Newcastle United FC | 25c | 254.05$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed AFC Bournemouth | 75c | 232.46$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 275 | 52.7%145 W · 130 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Newcastle United FC | 22c | 216.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Newcastle United FC | 23c | 148$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 418 | 50.7%212 W · 206 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed AFC Bournemouth | 75c | 131.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 288 | 59.7%172 W · 116 L | +19.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Newcastle United FC | 16c | 119.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Newcastle United FC | 24c | 99.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 408 | 41.9%171 W · 237 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Newcastle United FC | 22c | 73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked AFC Bournemouth | 75c | 65.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Newcastle United FC | 23c | 64.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccfa…6ee7backed AFC Bournemouth | 77c | 64.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed AFC Bournemouth | 77c | 64.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea3d…2e9dbacked AFC Bournemouth | 78c | 62.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed AFC Bournemouth | 76c | 36.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed AFC Bournemouth | 77c | 19.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 142 | 58.5%83 W · 59 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed AFC Bournemouth | 76c | 18.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked AFC Bournemouth | 77c | 14.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 129 | 63.6%82 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)this page
- Newcastle United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5Under won
- Newcastle United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5)Newcastle United FC won
- Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-2.5)Newcastle United FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-2.5)AFC Bournemouth won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.