Europa Conference League · resolved market
Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ef24b826bd386c3f11d533d1a103a0d8dc5fbe79474779a549fda443199e3ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 35c | 11,352$3,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,378.8 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Over | 68c | 4,025$2,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,737.23 | 97 | 38.1%37 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7acc…c5b9backed Over | 65c | 3,186$2,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,066.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0220…5ca3backed Over | 65c | 2,888$1,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,877.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked Over | 43c | 2,862$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.03 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Over | 65c | 1,939$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.02 | 180 | 37.8%68 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…5e86backed Over | 67c | 1,826$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.84 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 23c | 1,672$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.88 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…1a0fbacked Over | 1c | 1,524$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 78c | 1,278$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.32 | 145 | 61.4%89 W · 56 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47d9…54b7backed Under | 36c | 1,171$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.94 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…2aeabacked Under | 39c | 1,142$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.22 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2b…3e5cbacked Under | 38c | 543.27$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.7 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 74c | 356.64$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.05 | 1,200 | 47.4%569 W · 631 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa69…02c1backed Under | 42c | 258.92$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.17 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 25c | 191.16$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 760 | 37.4%284 W · 476 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 838 | 45%377 W · 461 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 44c | 177.77$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.67 | 1,104 | 45.4%501 W · 603 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 68c | 159.07$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.17 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Over | 68c | 140$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…da72backed Under | 78c | 118.67$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 74c | 78.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…1366backed Over | 64c | 77.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad1…b4c5backed Under | 36c | 69.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 75c | 64.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 636 | 49.5%315 W · 321 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 27c | 45.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Over | 65c | 44.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb3…f91dbacked Under | 38c | 43.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +162.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -25.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 37c | 38.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 537 | 47.9%257 W · 280 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d7…fcbbbacked Over | 48c | 31.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 78c | 30.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed Under | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…cec8backed Over | 68c | 19.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 71c | 18.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Over | 67c | 17.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 388 | 55.4%215 W · 173 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c3…f821backed Under | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Under | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…7d35backed Under | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 76cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5this page
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 0.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)Aarhus GF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.