Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36c6d291eea030e4bbaa5a3b343fef1a507f88992d888f4863d1fdcd8732e8d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sport Lisboa e Benficaof Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Aarhus GF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 47c | 27,432$12,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,539.13 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…1ebfbacked Aarhus GF | 53c | 25,000$13,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,249.98 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.53per pick | 30cpaid | +412.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd2…6657backed Aarhus GF | 54c | 11,555$6,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,184.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2114…84c5backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 46c | 4,348$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,347.83 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d1…286abacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 47c | 3,948$1,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,092.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 46c | 2,584$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.41 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 47c | 2,398$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.73 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…291fbacked Aarhus GF | 53c | 2,011$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Aarhus GF | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f90…7f51backed Aarhus GF | 53c | 1,667$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 46c | 1,028$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.98 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 47c | 986.37$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.82 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 47c | 628.15$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.92 | 1,219 | 36.3%442 W · 777 L | -18.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 45c | 555.56$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.56 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 47c | 486.32$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.75 | 760 | 37.4%284 W · 476 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 47c | 398$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.94 | 325 | 47.7%155 W · 170 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Aarhus GF | 53c | 365.98$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.97 | 341 | 42.8%146 W · 195 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 46c | 249.9$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.13 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 47c | 241$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.74 | 414 | 42.3%175 W · 239 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38bd…b8f3backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…a1e1backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 46c | 215$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Aarhus GF | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked Aarhus GF | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Aarhus GF | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked Aarhus GF | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Aarhus GF | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked Aarhus GF | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 47c | 158.24$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.66 | 1,200 | 47.4%569 W · 631 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 47c | 154.08$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.66 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Aarhus GF | 54c | 152.33$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.33 | 933 | 41.4%386 W · 547 L | -15.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ef…c822backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 53c | 149.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 46c | 112.14$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.01 | 209 | 48.8%102 W · 107 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Aarhus GF | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Aarhus GF | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb8…067cbacked Aarhus GF | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Aarhus GF | 56c | 78.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 277 | 37.9%105 W · 172 L | -17.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Aarhus GF | 55c | 64.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Aarhus GF | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 636 | 49.5%315 W · 321 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed Aarhus GF | 55c | 53.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf34…9e2bbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 47c | 51.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Aarhus GF | 47c | 43.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…f16abacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Aarhus GF | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf51…7cccbacked Aarhus GF | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 677 | 56.3%381 W · 296 L | +34.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3537…7580backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 46c | 29.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Aarhus GF | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Aarhus GF | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)this page
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 0.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)Aarhus GF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.