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Europa Conference League · resolved market

Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,214
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,338

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,214 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf978…9d31backed Over66c15,739$10,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,332.49366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x454b…5b8bbacked Over68c8,011$5,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,575.033148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under33c6,125$2,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,030.742,73840.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L-1.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0b8…e424backed Over68c3,815$2,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,206.471145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Under33c2,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66010655.7%59 W · 47 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under32c1,788$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.751,03450.8%525 W · 509 L+16.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under31c1,612$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.7247244.9%212 W · 260 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed Under34c1,568$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.127855.1%43 W · 35 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under33c1,400$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.741,20047.4%569 W · 631 L-5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under32c1,328$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.561,29049.1%633 W · 657 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under31c1,240$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.4377248.8%377 W · 395 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa69…02c1backed Under32c1,166$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.611926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-56.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x56f4…9ec5backed Under28c1,060$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.6318037.8%68 W · 112 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3401,04148%500 W · 541 L+18.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Over76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24025248.8%123 W · 129 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under34c852.76$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.9432547.7%155 W · 170 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under34c803.5$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.192,43437.3%909 W · 1,525 L-9.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x145a…5e86backed Over67c794.32$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.351656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under34c770.8$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.6993341.4%386 W · 547 L-15.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Under33c713.94$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.69959.6%59 W · 40 L+9.4wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under32c713.84$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.1872550.2%364 W · 361 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Under13c687.71$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.49520%19 W · 76 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+62.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Under33c609$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.847342.1%199 W · 274 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Under34c600$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2049051.1%46 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed Under35c600$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21014561.4%89 W · 56 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7bb…2753backed Over63c576.67$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.376847.1%32 W · 36 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a1…7622backed Under27c551.16$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.7912845.3%58 W · 70 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0969…cd12backed Under37c540.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Over67c493.98$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.776037.4%284 W · 476 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…a8e0backed Under34c441.17$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503540%14 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked Under34c400$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1368955.1%49 W · 40 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under34c400$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13610956.9%62 W · 47 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked Under34c400$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1368956.2%50 W · 39 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Under34c400$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1365954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Under34c400$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1366660.6%40 W · 26 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+17.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked Under34c400$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1369358.1%54 W · 39 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Under34c400$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13615558.1%90 W · 65 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under33c309.01$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.881,79354.8%983 W · 810 L+11.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under33c295.86$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2663249.1%310 W · 322 L+2.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1031…2febbacked Under39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Under37c249.49$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.7833442.5%142 W · 192 L-13.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e5c…ab50backed Over72c248.92$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.613839.5%15 W · 23 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick29cpaid-8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1429…1cd8backed Over67c231.34$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x240a…814cbacked Over68c213.41$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.291855.6%10 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under33c213.01$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.291,22245.3%553 W · 669 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Under33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666336.5%23 W · 40 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-24.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Under33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667565.3%49 W · 26 L+9.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+25%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed Under34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688955.1%49 W · 40 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Under34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687758.4%45 W · 32 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb8…067cbacked Under34c199.98$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.995060%30 W · 20 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over68c188$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.441442.3%175 W · 239 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5af3…1534backed Over68c160.8$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.83652.8%19 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked Under34c156$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.045360.4%32 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7acc…c5b9backed Over77c151.22$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.78633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under32c134.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9174939.4%295 W · 454 L-23.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Under31c116$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5254353.8%292 W · 251 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over67c114.55$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.091,21936.3%442 W · 777 L-18.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under35c113.66$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.781,10445.4%501 W · 603 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Under35c105.71$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377549.3%37 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Under34c102$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.686361.9%39 W · 24 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+17.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3d3f…c7f3backed Under29c101.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.93475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3349555.4%274 W · 221 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over58c99.98$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9925149.4%124 W · 127 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under34c99.66$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8876356.1%428 W · 335 L+21.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x042d…0b81backed Under34c96.3$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7415345.1%69 W · 84 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under34c80$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.289153.4%476 W · 415 L+9.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Under34c80$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.210158.4%59 W · 42 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bec…8d52backed Under34c79.05$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1414240.8%58 W · 84 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Under34c78.75$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1727737.9%105 W · 172 L-17.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Under39c76.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+31.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b18…dd26backed Under34c75.93$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.828149.4%40 W · 41 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e90…4f65backed Under35c74.53$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.769153.8%49 W · 42 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Under34c64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.766558.5%38 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0464…67dabacked Under48c62.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9838855.4%215 W · 173 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.563649.5%315 W · 321 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x403c…7f06backed Under34c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.66454.7%35 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under23c56.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1253747.9%257 W · 280 L-1.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked Over64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188944.9%40 W · 49 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-19.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.583733%276 W · 561 L-12.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f1…23eebacked Under35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.516033.8%54 W · 106 L-9.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4bcd…c00fbacked Under40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over68c42.96$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7541645.9%191 W · 225 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Over66c40.82$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0630851%157 W · 151 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under34c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.68154.3%44 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.27365.8%48 W · 25 L+8.8wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+27.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed Under34c39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2641343.3%179 W · 234 L-12.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Over64c38.59$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8920543.9%90 W · 115 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1573…a727backed Under39c38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.821353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d0d…57dabacked Over68c36.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a3d…9351backed Over73c34.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.084100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+66.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3538…1035backed Over62c32.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.251369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under36c30.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0133142.9%142 W · 189 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cf2…ac54backed Under38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f65…ec56backed Over69c28.26$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.76785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+22.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Over77c25.59$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9355953.1%297 W · 262 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.