Europa Conference League · resolved market
Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 1st Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfab02d3afafa88057a58c37e1a60247b5b80c42524d50a24e0bb63dcf94b1e43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a2b…3e5cbacked Over | 2c | 1,525$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x308b…b223backed Over | 48c | 1,119$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…2307backed Under | 38c | 563.58$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.42 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…c85dbacked Over | 62c | 526.32$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.32 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb0…5390backed Over | 42c | 491.71$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 52c | 256$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.88 | 325 | 47.7%155 W · 170 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 250$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.98 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 51c | 230.5$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.94 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 58c | 215.5$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.51 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 51c | 166.32$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +9.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 53c | 127.32$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Under | 58c | 121.76$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8366…54ffbacked Under | 45c | 114.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.06 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 55c | 110$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 195 | 45.6%89 W · 106 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 58c | 103.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe814…8ffabacked Under | 58c | 53.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 72c | 38.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 838 | 45%377 W · 461 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…1ef5backed Under | 31c | 38.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 59c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 537 | 47.9%257 W · 280 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 45c | 34.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 1,219 | 36.3%442 W · 777 L | -18.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 42.5%79 W · 107 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…cec8backed Under | 58c | 26.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 21.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 933 | 41.4%386 W · 547 L | -15.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 1st Half O/U 1.5this page
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 0.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)Aarhus GF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.