Europa Conference League · resolved market
Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8697bba6a1ad7b06c19c2032db0f7ab87ee267b4b3891dfdb3888f66479a6dcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Under | 4c | 24,652$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.65 | 97 | 38.1%37 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 45c | 15,740$7,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,579.03 | 1,104 | 45.4%501 W · 603 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 54c | 3,852$2,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 9c | 2,931$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.19 | 180 | 37.8%68 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712e…0485backed Under | 55c | 2,766$1,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,521.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 2,069$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.24 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 55c | 1,828$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.28 | 772 | 48.8%377 W · 395 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e97…8ffabacked Under | 3c | 1,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Over | 44c | 1,608$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.19 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8762…0d85backed Under | 54c | 1,475$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 53cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 55c | 1,398$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.54 | 1,200 | 47.4%569 W · 631 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 55c | 1,380$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.36 | 725 | 50.2%364 W · 361 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 55c | 1,105$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.57 | 325 | 47.7%155 W · 170 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…8654backed Under | 12c | 1,056$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.16 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Over | 47c | 1,017$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.21 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed Over | 45c | 1,012$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.6 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Under | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2b…3e5cbacked Under | 1c | 867.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 55c | 788.08$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.45 | 1,222 | 45.3%553 W · 669 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 55c | 666.66$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.66 | 472 | 44.9%212 W · 260 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0d…03c0backed Over | 45c | 666.66$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa69…02c1backed Over | 57c | 657.3$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.45 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 44c | 568.18$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.18 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…ab50backed Over | 71c | 483.78$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.94 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Over | 45c | 452.44$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.84 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 43c | 438.53$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.69 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 42c | 394$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.04 | 414 | 42.3%175 W · 239 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 55c | 355.35$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.44 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 59c | 343.98$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.9 | 442 | 51.6%228 W · 214 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 55c | 340$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 473 | 42.1%199 W · 274 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…8445backed Under | 6c | 336.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 59c | 306.96$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.66 | 145 | 61.4%89 W · 56 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc48c…1548backed Under | 59c | 264.5$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.06 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 58c | 253.5$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.05 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 248$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.44 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…a8e0backed Under | 61c | 245.9$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.87 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 54c | 213.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.61 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked Under | 56c | 199.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed Under | 55c | 176.57$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.31 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked Under | 56c | 162.45$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.97 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 43c | 160$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 251 | 49.4%124 W · 127 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 54c | 159.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.69 | 636 | 49.5%315 W · 321 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…a72cbacked Over | 46c | 159.63$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 43c | 108.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 760 | 37.4%284 W · 476 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 44c | 94.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 1,219 | 36.3%442 W · 777 L | -18.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2458…bd24backed Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb18…6f32backed Over | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 54c | 78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 293 | 37.5%110 W · 183 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…4ee7backed Over | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Over | 58c | 64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acc…c5b9backed Under | 42c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 54c | 52.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 749 | 39.4%295 W · 454 L | -23.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Over | 43c | 40.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 308 | 51%157 W · 151 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 54c | 39.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 277 | 37.9%105 W · 172 L | -17.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b93…d7babacked Over | 47c | 38.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 52c | 31.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 334 | 42.5%142 W · 192 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 45c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 209 | 48.8%102 W · 107 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 54c | 20.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -25.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Under | 59c | 18.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5this page
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 0.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)Aarhus GF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.