Europa Conference League · resolved market
Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x332ab42d7f4e994ba802b1845a7efa464295d0c78276257d715730b3f6903af4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2393…d54dbacked Yes | 57c | 1,687$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.41 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 43c | 874$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.82 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked No | 43c | 817$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.31 | 251 | 41%103 W · 148 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…1e3ebacked Yes | 66c | 528.82$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 58c | 494.78$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.47 | 1,219 | 36.3%442 W · 777 L | -18.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff6…d1fdbacked No | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 35c | 383.24$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.97 | 933 | 41.4%386 W · 547 L | -15.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Yes | 50c | 330.32$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.16 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 43c | 263.96$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.65 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 42c | 249.61$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.33 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea88…261abacked Yes | 58c | 168.14$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 42c | 138.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 1,200 | 47.4%569 W · 631 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 43c | 121.82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 34c | 93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 537 | 47.9%257 W · 280 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…4d49backed Yes | 42c | 76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…e717backed Yes | 38c | 75.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 43c | 61.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 2,434 | 37.3%909 W · 1,525 L | -9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 57c | 58.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 760 | 37.4%284 W · 476 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481a…68a9backed Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3381…4c3cbacked Yes | 58c | 43.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed No | 44c | 40.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4b…d965backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed No | 42c | 37.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 277 | 37.9%105 W · 172 L | -17.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 42c | 31.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 749 | 39.4%295 W · 454 L | -23.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed No | 42c | 30.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 0.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)Aarhus GF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.