Asian League · resolved market
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-05-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f0c70079c18c912a76798c8466f74408e4b99dbc620392c838fbbe5b4d37ace
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x089f…fe64backed Yes | 33c | 4,545$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes | 15c | 4,470$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.33 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 67c | 2,768$1,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.03 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 11c | 2,283$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.2 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 67c | 1,928$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.49 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0f…e25fbacked Yes | 33c | 1,030$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.47 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 32c | 1,018$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.69 | 196 | 33.2%65 W · 131 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 67c | 999.99$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 139 | 56.1%78 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 15c | 637.06$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.36 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 285 | 32.3%92 W · 193 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 32c | 343.75$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 21c | 299.41$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 106 | 26.4%28 W · 78 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…55bebacked No | 68c | 295.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.75 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x780f…5f16backed No | 73c | 274.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 75c | 270.74$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…56fdbacked No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 227.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1783backed Yes | 14c | 216.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Yes | 33c | 212.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -9.6wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 14c | 175.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 18c | 175$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…1f51backed Yes | 30c | 167.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…bdfbbacked Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc3…9889backed Yes | 18c | 131.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 20c | 127.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 28c | 114.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 29c | 103.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 176 | 30.1%53 W · 123 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 67c | 100.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 23c | 100.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 82 | 14.6%12 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…1184backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…4f53backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa299…ac77backed Yes | 33c | 71.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…44ebbacked Yes | 21c | 69.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 23c | 69.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfde3…67b6backed Yes | 17c | 68.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 67c | 67.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 134 | 63.4%85 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 19c | 56.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 67c | 41.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…6044backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32bb…8addbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…dcf5backed No | 68c | 19.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 69c | 18.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed No | 67c | 16.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-05-16?this page
- Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-16?No won
- Will Urawa Red Diamonds vs. FC Tōkyō end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.