Asian League · resolved market
Will Urawa Red Diamonds vs. FC Tōkyō end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f08c7eac7cdef7290d03a278936a01cf26cbd2859b8836715e4ff149544ac1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 51c | 3,645$1,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,851 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 65c | 3,575$2,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.61 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 24c | 3,127$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.46 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…81afbacked Yes | 72c | 2,781$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.03 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked No | 15c | 2,250$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.6 | 243 | 23%56 W · 187 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 38c | 1,679$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.82 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 48c | 1,458$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.33 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 34c | 883.75$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.11 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 66c | 766.83$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.92 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…911fbacked Yes | 30c | 650.07$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 69c | 548.39$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.39 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a11…eb9dbacked Yes | 43c | 494.43$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.27 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 32c | 468.75$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.75 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 38c | 399.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.27 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +42%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 77c | 375.63$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.44 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…aea6backed Yes | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked No | 36c | 275$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24a3…7c66backed No | 41c | 239.02$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…55bebacked Yes | 31c | 225.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.81 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Yes | 31c | 225.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.81 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Yes | 42c | 214.29$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.29 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…4f53backed Yes | 40c | 210.08$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.08 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked No | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc056…e188backed Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 33c | 193.26$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.32 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Yes | 30c | 190$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 65c | 188.23$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.83 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 53c | 178.66$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.62 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…dc9ebacked Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed No | 7c | 167.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 29c | 162.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 63c | 155.53$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 65c | 154.34$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.94 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1234…3bb3backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 50c | 126.86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 10c | 108.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 282 | 51.4%145 W · 137 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 31c | 105.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a88…3dadbacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0271…156bbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 74c | 96.88$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 190 | 48.4%92 W · 98 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…5694backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 29c | 96.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.71 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…e0d7backed Yes | 36c | 94.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1783backed No | 43c | 70.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Yes | 57c | 70.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42f7…91aabacked No | 28c | 67.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3d…3d83backed Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb091…2017backed Yes | 64c | 67.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 26c | 64.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…dd8fbacked No | 74c | 59.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1e…53b8backed Yes | 30c | 56.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 32c | 51.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd1…344fbacked No | 52c | 51.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcb…575ebacked No | 39c | 51.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 50.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…9db1backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5657…0e72backed Yes | 38c | 48.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed No | 69c | 34.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 134 | 63.4%85 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Yes | 72c | 33.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 159 | 71.1%113 W · 46 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b80…8b39backed Yes | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked No | 66c | 30.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765d…2e22backed Yes | 79c | 26.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 202 | 56.4%114 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 70c | 24.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…bbd3backed No | 66c | 21.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Yes | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Urawa Red Diamonds vs. FC Tōkyō end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-16?No won
- Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-05-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.