Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8481548b710a8f260d528db7e4eca8e5dc703397de588076ac13db58f63d4b86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 60c | 8,192$4,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,238.83 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…e838backed No | 63c | 3,800$2,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7e…6d00backed Yes | 41c | 2,439$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Yes | 42c | 2,077$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 34c | 1,723$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.08 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed Yes | 38c | 1,489$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.01 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Yes | 39c | 1,283$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…7f7ebacked Yes | 39c | 1,090$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Yes | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 62c | 908.39$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.19 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…2cb8backed Yes | 39c | 846.53$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 63c | 696.15$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.59 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 32c | 681.1$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.37 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 63c | 679.27$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.09 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 61c | 591.99$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.88 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 66c | 584.65$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.62 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 39c | 500.05$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.02 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 38c | 499.97$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc056…e188backed Yes | 39c | 487.18$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1783backed Yes | 36c | 412.23$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.21 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Yes | 27c | 399.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -54%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…44b8backed Yes | 38c | 380.11$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.09 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…4529backed Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 36c | 300$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.86 | 106 | 26.4%28 W · 78 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…ccf6backed Yes | 38c | 294$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.72 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Yes | 38c | 288.87$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 61c | 283.08$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…8230backed Yes | 39c | 260$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 24c | 234.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…499ebacked No | 62c | 232.26$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2744…7e85backed Yes | 42c | 231.17$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…8052backed Yes | 39c | 228.21$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 62c | 195.01$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 62c | 178.09$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.18 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…3efbbacked No | 62c | 154.13$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 18c | 147.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 37c | 145.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 237 | 55.3%131 W · 106 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…0350backed Yes | 39c | 136$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…b1eebacked Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…c775backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2f…9765backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…7f60backed Yes | 31c | 96.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 62c | 87.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa299…ac77backed Yes | 38c | 86.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 34c | 78.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…095bbacked Yes | 32c | 76.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8339…caa9backed Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 28c | 70.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 69c | 67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 37c | 61.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…73e0backed Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 40c | 60.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 63c | 60.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…2ff6backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 62c | 50.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 192 | 68.2%131 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…5694backed No | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 67c | 46.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e8…9826backed Yes | 26c | 42.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a11…eb9dbacked Yes | 40c | 41.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 62c | 41.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 38c | 35.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…44ebbacked Yes | 33c | 33.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 32c | 32.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed No | 62c | 23.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 117 | 64.1%75 W · 42 L | +11.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…523cbacked No | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd0…21dbbacked No | 68c | 19.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed No | 75c | 16.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 40 | 85%34 W · 6 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-16?this page
- Will Urawa Red Diamonds vs. FC Tōkyō end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-05-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.