Movies · resolved market
Will "Good Fortune" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f1f3d137fbf1b4879c245b15e074acc65288e4c4b8e2f1deb5f30838ba157ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes | 58c | 1,261$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.01 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 14c | 624.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.64 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 37c | 330.57$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.68 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 56c | 195.59$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.44 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 104$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 54c | 99.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 62c | 91.2$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…4656backed Yes | 34c | 65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 62.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 55c | 36.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…3ff1backed Yes | 67c | 29.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a4…b292backed Yes | 43c | 27.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 80c | 14.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Good Fortune" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?this page
- Will "Good Fortune" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 12m?No won
- Will "Good Fortune" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 12m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.