Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f2f47b1980e8e2e0c38a3871489fe39d82dba722c3976f4e5278293f38e25df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 309.49$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.06 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 224.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 49c | 205.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.01 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 200.1$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.91 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 159.57$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 49c | 147$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.03 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 32c | 125.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 120.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 119.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 46c | 117.73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…83a4backed Yes | 47c | 114.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 108.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 19c | 102.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 102.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 33c | 101.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 61c | 82.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 46c | 77.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 73c | 75.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 62c | 71.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 72c | 67.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 64.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 43c | 58.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 67c | 52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 41c | 50.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 27c | 47.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98cf…852abacked No | 70c | 43.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 72cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 40.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x729d…e8a8backed No | 72c | 38.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 37.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 46c | 36.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 60c | 33.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 32.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 41c | 31.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 28.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 42c | 28.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…8b12backed No | 78c | 28.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 54 | 88.9%48 W · 6 L | +12.5wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +40%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 74c | 25.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d25…30fcbacked Yes | 45c | 24.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 60c | 23.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 58c | 22.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…b9d1backed No | 59c | 20.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 61c | 20.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 19.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 59c | 17.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.