Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb40992430873d4c3f0a67a247525c06a764f05fcec87e4435d55592e136e62e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 34c | 802.78$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.91 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 32c | 627.59$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.56 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 307.22$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.83 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 307.1$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 287.48$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.42 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 225.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 27c | 209$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 172.48$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 150$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 66c | 142.08$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 36c | 134.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 66c | 129.72$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 126$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 37c | 110.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 66c | 106.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 62c | 102.42$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 88.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 67c | 78.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 47c | 68.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 37c | 66.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 65c | 50.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 33c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 72c | 47.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 74c | 47.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cf…852abacked Yes | 65c | 46.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 72cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 60c | 45.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 48c | 41.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 34c | 40.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 39c | 39.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 29.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 39c | 29.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 28.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 27.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 72c | 27.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 37c | 27.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…8b12backed Yes | 55c | 25.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 54 | 88.9%48 W · 6 L | +12.5wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +40%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 25.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 25.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 23.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 23.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 67c | 22.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 20.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 64c | 18.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…0f48backed No | 71c | 16.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 15.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.