MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f432476fe85b0a601c683bc272c6d3a1d68556eecb4508709030436cc146258
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 3,333$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,155.32 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 2,991$1,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,938.55 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 1,388$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.24 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 1,188$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.72 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 673.72$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.71 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 507.79$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.99 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 500$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 383$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.95 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 361.04$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.58 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 304.68$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.09 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…a69bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 192.32$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.08 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 191.55$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.67 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 186.25$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.34 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…3128backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 147.84$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.36 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 144.76$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.13 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 134.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.87 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 89.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.29 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 89.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.29 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 89.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.29 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 89.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 79.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 76.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 79c | 73.16$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 398 | 50.3%200 W · 198 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 57.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 39.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 38.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 38.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 37.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 29.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 79c | 19.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…7da7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 16.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4566…aa9bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 15.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- NRFI: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.