MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf386d257abc30c41b4c4134e2c38c81a7bb301c088d2fd9a91dc5e21bcffc801
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 49c | 22,232$10,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,350.15 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 9,980$5,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,089.8 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 51c | 5,036$2,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,568.36 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 51c | 3,333$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.83 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 49c | 1,740$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.42 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 48c | 1,580$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.76 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Under | 26c | 1,496$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.75 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 52c | 1,365$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.24 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…001dbacked Under | 10c | 1,300$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +131%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d94…593ebacked Under | 10c | 1,293$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +201.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 53c | 1,065$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.62 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9569…27fdbacked Under | 52c | 971.2$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.02 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 78c | 790.49$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.11 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 51c | 700$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 53c | 598.49$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.2 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1e…63bbbacked Under | 53c | 583.08$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.03 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 410.19$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.72 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 50c | 388$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 358.98$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.43 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Under | 60c | 340$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 40c | 327.76$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.66 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4722…2abfbacked Under | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…f2aabacked Under | 51c | 278.72$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 273.78$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.73 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 53c | 269.73$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.93 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 48c | 256.97$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.93 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 48c | 251.75$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.06 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Under | 53c | 224.51$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.96 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Over | 48c | 201.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 197.4$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.57 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…8ce5backed Under | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 46c | 168.91$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.26 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 49c | 158.27$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.72 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 126.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 51c | 123.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 51c | 99.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Under | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 48c | 78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58a…b8f8backed Under | 51c | 77.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 135 | 49.6%67 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 53c | 59.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 47c | 56.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 61c | 55.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 52c | 47.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 54c | 46.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 47c | 43.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 51c | 40.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 51c | 39.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…14c9backed Over | 30c | 38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dd…ad7bbacked Under | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 54c | 37.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 44c | 32.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…2c8abacked Under | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 45c | 27.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 46c | 23.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 46c | 23.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 46c | 23.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Under | 51c | 22.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 52c | 21.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5this page
- NRFI: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.