MLB · resolved market
NRFI: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b7cdd5efe6c6696229e49e649fdd8de64fb9a2dc80eafdf5b35ad0c7b58b198
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes | 54c | 3,333$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.81 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde18…83bcbacked No | 47c | 2,964$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,580.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Yes | 56c | 2,865$1,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,617.68 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 46c | 2,081$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.72 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Yes | 53c | 2,080$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.37 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…d7f0backed No | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 45c | 854.84$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.15 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 45c | 481.91$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.21 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 55c | 473.88$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.09 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 42c | 443.16$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.98 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Yes | 54c | 254.77$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.58 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x701f…9b8fbacked Yes | 54c | 249.66$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.97 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 46c | 241.9$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.63 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 44c | 241.6$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.3 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Yes | 55c | 177.24$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Yes | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 55c | 108.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 64c | 90.79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 252 | 47.6%120 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…0d17backed Yes | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Yes | 55c | 44.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked No | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked No | 45c | 24.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c06…7812backed Yes | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 45c | 22.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x112e…0d1fbacked Yes | 56c | 21.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NRFI: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewersthis page
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.