Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f447c1807a574d0ebdc55c9606ecf5960e26ce7d1ff5e8d23224b305c458d38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 29c | 1,071$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.69 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 429.33$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.49 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 47c | 327.11$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.33 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 74c | 267.45$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.44 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 31c | 254.2$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.2 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 70c | 177.34$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.14 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 154.25$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.9 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 150$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 30c | 146$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.47 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 141.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.05 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 71c | 141.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 13c | 136.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 124.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.03 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ec…3a46backed No | 8c | 120.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed No | 67c | 119.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.39 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed No | 28c | 115$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 108.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 16c | 108$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.24 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…2404backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.37 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 98.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 97.91$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 88.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 84.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 26c | 72.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 67.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 59c | 58.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 26c | 56.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 70c | 54.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 53c | 54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 34c | 49.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 47.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 54c | 46.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 46.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 30c | 44.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 31c | 43.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 46c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 31c | 41.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed Yes | 28c | 39.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 28c | 39.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 54c | 38.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 70c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 67c | 37.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 36c | 37.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 65c | 35.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 56c | 34.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 57c | 31.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 31.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 30.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 63c | 30.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 27.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 50c | 25.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 45c | 23.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 67c | 23.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 69c | 22.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d42…a046backed No | 74c | 20.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 78c | 20.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 70c | 16.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 66c | 15.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.