NHL · resolved market
Red Wings vs. Senators
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f5c9cb4cbb0768eaf3f9645a80f7344e744bab6104b9763cdb59663bebfe179
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Senatorsof Red Wings, Senators
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2dd8…eb7bbacked Senators | 63c | 1,696$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.61 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b3…fd35backed Red Wings | 37c | 1,696$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Red Wings | 35c | 589.18$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.21 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Red Wings | 36c | 399.98$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.99 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…e0d3backed Senators | 65c | 286$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 244 | 57.4%140 W · 104 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Senators | 61c | 283.8$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.68 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…f3e7backed Red Wings | 44c | 227.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Senators | 64c | 217.95$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.46 | 724 | 48.3%350 W · 374 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Red Wings | 36c | 200.66$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 355 | 45.4%161 W · 194 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Red Wings | 8c | 199$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 745 | 0.7%5 W · 740 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…5014backed Red Wings | 37c | 170.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Senators | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Senators | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 508 | 57.7%293 W · 215 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…f186backed Senators | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 135 | 62.2%84 W · 51 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Senators | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Senators | 62c | 110.53$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Red Wings | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Senators | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9a…cb4dbacked Senators | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Red Wings | 36c | 71.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 818 | 46%376 W · 442 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked Senators | 63c | 62.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Red Wings | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…7340backed Red Wings | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…a572backed Senators | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf93b…bb37backed Red Wings | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e21…f14abacked Red Wings | 39c | 47.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2417…6bbdbacked Senators | 63c | 47.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…32cdbacked Senators | 63c | 47.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x058b…e96cbacked Red Wings | 39c | 47.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…aa50backed Red Wings | 39c | 46.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Senators | 74c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 170 | 54.7%93 W · 77 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ec…bee0backed Red Wings | 39c | 38.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…59e2backed Red Wings | 36c | 35.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed Senators | 74c | 34.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce4…7addbacked Senators | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c02…3690backed Senators | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…4e3dbacked Senators | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…3c8ebacked Senators | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…dde6backed Senators | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd31…4f6dbacked Senators | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff5…ce78backed Senators | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…52dbbacked Senators | 63c | 19.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21a2…866dbacked Senators | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.