NFL · resolved market
Spread: Colts (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f74c5a88282680949494a02818f4b274f3b8d6eadd6ca1de81c0e064537f85a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coltsof Colts, Titans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $399,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $400,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $399,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb744…5210backed Titans | 51c | 375,496$191,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191,503.11 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Colts | 49c | 344,499$168,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175,694.56 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Colts | 49c | 40,000$19,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,400 | 174 | 54.6%95 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Titans | 51c | 8,598$4,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,377 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Titans | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Colts | 49c | 2,349$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.73 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…99febacked Titans | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Colts | 48c | 1,274$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.39 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Colts | 43c | 1,006$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.06 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Colts | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…b76cbacked Titans | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Titans | 52c | 385$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Colts | 62c | 370.27$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Colts | 48c | 309$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.63 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Titans | 51c | 274.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Titans | 51c | 256.17$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.65 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcde5…32b5backed Colts | 49c | 246$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.46 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Colts | 49c | 210$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…0825backed Titans | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…7942backed Colts | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…53efbacked Titans | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Titans | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Titans | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Colts (-15.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Colts (-9.5)Colts won
- Spread: Colts (-11.5)Colts won
- Spread: Colts (-12.5)Colts won
- Spread: Colts (-14.5)Colts won
- Titans vs. ColtsColts won
- Titans vs. Colts: 1H MoneylineColts won
- Titans vs. Colts: O/U 44.5Over won
- Titans vs. Colts: O/U 45.5Over won
- Titans vs. Colts: O/U 46.5Over won
- Titans vs. Colts: O/U 47.5Over won
- Titans vs. Colts: O/U 48.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.