NFL · resolved market

Spread: Colts (-14.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74e1567d4b2e16cc51538030a72c6974fac6348b965a872a20d9cd17d2dc23a9

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Coltsof Colts, Titans
Resolved: Oct 26, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $207,113
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $227,356

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $207,113 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0549…c052backed Colts	51c	50,000$25,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24,500	58	55.2%32 W · 26 L	+3.7wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Titans	50c	42,000$21,180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21,179.99	176	47.7%84 W · 92 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Titans	49c	33,763$16,544 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16,543.87	446	52.9%236 W · 210 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Colts	52c	19,093$9,928 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,164.6	41	43.9%18 W · 23 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Colts	52c	15,067$7,835 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,232	174	54.6%95 W · 79 L	+8.9wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Colts	48c	9,828$4,749 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,079.09	335	53.4%179 W · 156 L	+10.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Titans	48c	9,658$4,677 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,677	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Colts	51c	8,773$4,501 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,271.71	477	38.6%184 W · 293 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Titans	50c	8,000$4,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,000	88	45.5%40 W · 48 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Titans	50c	7,500$3,750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,750	513	52.2%268 W · 245 L	+16.0wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Titans	48c	5,908$2,836 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,835.84	865	47.9%414 W · 451 L	-6.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Colts	51c	4,015$2,033 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,982.44	207	55.1%114 W · 93 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Titans	50c	4,000$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	184	35.9%66 W · 118 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Colts	50c	4,000$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,000	181	40.9%74 W · 107 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	+42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Colts	48c	2,911$1,398 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,513.45	249	57%142 W · 107 L	+12.6wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Titans	49c	2,189$1,073 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,073.35	229	50.2%115 W · 114 L	+9.5wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Colts	48c	2,000$960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,040	684	46.1%315 W · 369 L	+16.9wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Titans	50c	1,637$814 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$814.46	419	47.3%198 W · 221 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Titans	48c	1,524$731 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$731.37	224	50%112 W · 112 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0774…99febacked Colts	52c	1,500$780 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$720	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-2.0wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde91…f20abacked Titans	48c	999.99$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed Colts	52c	961.54$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$461.54	117	44.4%52 W · 65 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35de…b39abacked Colts	52c	769.23$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$369.23	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Titans	47c	748.19$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.69	412	48.5%200 W · 212 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Titans	48c	496.14$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.15	373	50.9%190 W · 183 L	+12.9wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Titans	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	163	46%75 W · 88 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04eb…36a7backed Colts	52c	240.38$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.38	193	61.7%119 W · 74 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Titans	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	553	45%249 W · 304 L	-9.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Colts	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	133	47.4%63 W · 70 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Titans	51c	176.47$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	111	56.8%63 W · 48 L	+7.7wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+13%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Colts	52c	150$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72	206	32%66 W · 140 L	-10.8wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e0b…cd84backed Colts	50c	150$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	80	47.5%38 W · 42 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1316…c716backed Colts	51c	150$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.5	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Colts	50c	140$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70	280	47.5%133 W · 147 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7b3…f97cbacked Colts	48c	140$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.8	73	49.3%36 W · 37 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Titans	49c	109$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.04	770	52.7%406 W · 364 L	+24.8wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb225…d86bbacked Colts	52c	108.67$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.16	89	56.2%50 W · 39 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaef9…abefbacked Titans	50c	104$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Colts	45c	100$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	259	56.8%147 W · 112 L	+14.8wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d4b…a250backed Colts	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	209	49.8%104 W · 105 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c10…df5cbacked Titans	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	70	50%35 W · 35 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc91…ab50backed Titans	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	59cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4de…cb5cbacked Colts	51c	98.1$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.07	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff9…ce7abacked Colts	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	116	50.9%59 W · 57 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ed7…e617backed Colts	52c	86$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.28	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+56.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Titans	51c	78.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	198	44.9%89 W · 109 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0448…5a75backed Colts	51c	60$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.4	65	49.2%32 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Titans	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	242	43.4%105 W · 137 L	-7.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe914…1707backed Titans	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	29	31%9 W · 20 L	-3.0wins	-0.11per pick	42cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Colts	47c	37.43$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.94	414	50.5%209 W · 205 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a26…8acbbacked Titans	50c	36$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	86	31.4%27 W · 59 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0078…bca0backed Colts	52c	28.02$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.45	227	45.4%103 W · 124 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Colts (-14.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event