NFL · resolved market
Titans vs. Colts: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fb137461a3f8de260e15172702caff2e505078871f0907f5046d19ea16533e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 50c | 4,620$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300.1 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 52c | 4,402$2,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,278.77 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Over | 49c | 3,098$1,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,580.07 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 49c | 1,083$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.65 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Under | 51c | 999.99$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Under | 48c | 884.46$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.54 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 48c | 723.26$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.63 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Over | 50c | 615$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.5 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 348.84$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.9 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 46c | 327.08$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.45 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 49c | 323.46$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.5 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 44c | 278$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.32 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15f…98f9backed Under | 51c | 156$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 51c | 133$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Under | 49c | 112.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3802…caddbacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 44c | 80.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Over | 54c | 64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9015…de85backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 48c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe914…1707backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe06f…1984backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2059…5203backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Titans vs. Colts: O/U 47.5this page
- 1H Spread: Colts (-9.5)Colts won
- Spread: Colts (-11.5)Colts won
- Spread: Colts (-12.5)Colts won
- Spread: Colts (-14.5)Colts won
- Spread: Colts (-15.5)Colts won
- Titans vs. ColtsColts won
- Titans vs. Colts: 1H MoneylineColts won
- Titans vs. Colts: O/U 44.5Over won
- Titans vs. Colts: O/U 45.5Over won
- Titans vs. Colts: O/U 46.5Over won
- Titans vs. Colts: O/U 48.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.