Serie A · resolved market
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fb967ec74c6cd5a553c32aaafbb784b35a72521e0bff6d3abeb46dc2f270be3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 80c | 7,887$6,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,577.4 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 77cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 17c | 7,136$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.72 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 21c | 5,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 205 | 44.9%92 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Under | 63c | 4,999$3,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,849.67 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 22c | 2,500$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 78c | 2,027$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.19 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 22c | 1,141$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.1 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 29c | 704.93$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Under | 79c | 689.56$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.81 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 22c | 681.82$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 131 | 37.4%49 W · 82 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 23c | 219.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 155.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 21c | 148$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over | 21c | 142.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d20…1f58backed Under | 79c | 137.89$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 79c | 122.41$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Over | 24c | 120.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…da75backed Over | 37c | 90.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Over | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Over | 17c | 75.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 40c | 75.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2da4…2b9cbacked Under | 77c | 74.27$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 72c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 37c | 59.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +14.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 41c | 56.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 40c | 52.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 28c | 44.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 319 | 58.3%186 W · 133 L | +26.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0247…bb07backed Under | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…aea9backed Under | 79c | 29.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.25per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5this page
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. US Cremonese: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 1.5Under won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 2.5Under won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.